Conclusion: Currently, the grid electricity prices in China are mostly in the range of 0.3~0.4 yuan/kWh, and the cost of wind and solar power generation has decreased to 0.15 yuan/kWh, leaving about 0.2 yuan/kWh of profit and loss space for energy storage. Therefore, a lifetime electricity cost of 0.2 yuan/kWh will become a key indicator to test whether each technology can be used for large-scale energy storage.
In 2022, the installed proportion of clean energy in Qinghai Province exceeded 40 million kilowatts, accounting for 91.2% of the total installed capacity, and clean energy power generation has taken a dominant position; Among them, the installed capacity of wind power is 9.72 million kilowatts, accounting for 21.8%, and the installed capacity of solar power is 18.42 million kilowatts, accounting for 41.2%. In terms of the proportion of power generation, hydroelectric power generation accounts for 42.7 billion kilowatt hours, accounting for 43.0% of the total power generation of various types of power sources; Solar power generation is 25.6 billion kilowatt hours, accounting for 25.8% of the total power generation of various types of power sources; Wind power generates 15.6 billion kilowatt hours, accounting for 15.7% of the total power generation of various types of power sources. The clean energy industry in Qinghai Province is flourishing, but the challenges that come with it are becoming increasingly prominent.
Due to the rapid growth of clean energy installed capacity, Qinghai Province is facing a problem of the emergence of the American style "power duck" curve phenomenon, which is the difference curve between the net value of demand for all day electricity and renewable energy (such as solar energy), named "duck curve" because its curve is similar to a duck. The "Duck Curve" reflects the challenges posed by the increasing installed capacity of photovoltaics, resulting in a decrease in net demand during the day (duck belly), a sharp increase at sunset (duck neck), a deeper belly, and a steeper and longer neck every year. More than a decade ago, the famous California power grid net load "duck curve" led the global energy community to pay attention to energy storage demand, hoping to use energy storage to smooth the duck curve. However, more than a decade later today, the duck curve has intensified into a canyon curve.
The main reason for the appearance of the "duck curve" in the California power grid is that photovoltaic power generation reaches its maximum at noon and disappears in the evening when there is no solar energy. However, at this time, the demand for electricity sharply increases, and photovoltaic power generation cannot meet this demand. In theory, when the proportion of photovoltaic power generation in the power grid exceeds 20%, the power grid will face the problem of the "duck curve", while Qinghai's proportion has already reached 25% as early as 2022, and its power allocation imbalance problem is catching up with the current "canyon curve" in California, USA. The recent announcement of the proportion of new energy installed capacity and the adjustment of electricity prices in Qinghai Province, China, seems to support the fact that Qinghai Province is facing the same or more severe electricity "duck curve" as California.

On March 22, the Qinghai Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on soliciting opinions from the public on optimizing and improving the peak valley time of use electricity price policy in our province (draft for soliciting opinions). It is explicitly stated that "Qinghai Province will adjust the electricity consumption of all industrial and commercial users who implement the peak and valley time of use pricing policy during peak and valley periods: 7:00-9:00, 17:00-23:00 during peak periods; 9:00-17:00 during low periods; the rest of the time will be normal periods. Especially, the policy of increasing electricity prices by 63% during peak periods and decreasing electricity prices by 65% during low periods will guide users to concentrate electricity consumption during low periods, reduce electricity consumption during peak periods, and attempt to balance the supply-demand relationship and reduce the pressure of electricity consumption during peak periods."
The current problem facing Qinghai is the high daytime power generation, limited transmission channels of the power grid, and inability to deliver all electricity to the eastern region, which is the peak period of electricity prices. In order to achieve on-site consumption, Qinghai has introduced many high energy consuming industries, which usually require 24-hour uninterrupted operation to reduce the negative impact on equipment and products, thus also bringing about the problem of insufficient nighttime power generation. According to the development trend of the "canyon curve", in areas with a high proportion of wind and solar power generation, morning and evening peak hours will become the norm. This phenomenon first appeared in Qinghai because the proportion of wind and solar power generation in the province is at the leading level in the country. It can be foreseen that China will also face the same problem in five to ten years.
For a province in Qinghai, the problem of excessive daytime power generation can be solved by expanding the power grid channel, but it still cannot solve the problem of insufficient morning and evening power generation. For the whole country, the power grid channel can only solve the problem of uneven daytime power generation space, but it cannot solve the problem of uneven power generation time. Therefore, conducting large-scale energy storage and peak shaving within the day is the only way to solve the imbalance of power generation time. The 2030 carbon peak target set by China is estimated to require more than 25% of wind and solar power generation. Whether the economy of large-scale energy storage technology can meet self profitability will be the soul question that all technological routes will face. The current electricity prices in China are mostly in the range of 0.3~0.4 yuan/kWh, and the cost of wind and solar power generation has decreased to 0.15 yuan/kWh, leaving about 0.2 yuan/kWh of profit and loss space for energy storage. Therefore, a lifetime electricity cost of 0.2 yuan/kWh will become a key indicator to test whether each technology can be used for large-scale energy storage.

How to scientifically calculate the full life cycle electricity cost of energy storage systems

全钒液流电池-储能系统/BMS

液流电池-电极/隔膜
LAB系列研发示范装置
储能系统度电成本计算器NeLCOS®

Conclusion: Currently, the grid electricity prices in China are mostly in the range of 0.3~0.4 yuan/kWh, and the cost of wind and solar power generation has decreased to 0.15 yuan/kWh, leaving about 0.2 yuan/kWh of profit and loss space for energy storage. Therefore, a lifetime electricity cost of 0.2 yuan/kWh will become a key indicator to test whether each technology can be used for large-scale energy storage.
In 2022, the installed proportion of clean energy in Qinghai Province exceeded 40 million kilowatts, accounting for 91.2% of the total installed capacity, and clean energy power generation has taken a dominant position; Among them, the installed capacity of wind power is 9.72 million kilowatts, accounting for 21.8%, and the installed capacity of solar power is 18.42 million kilowatts, accounting for 41.2%. In terms of the proportion of power generation, hydroelectric power generation accounts for 42.7 billion kilowatt hours, accounting for 43.0% of the total power generation of various types of power sources; Solar power generation is 25.6 billion kilowatt hours, accounting for 25.8% of the total power generation of various types of power sources; Wind power generates 15.6 billion kilowatt hours, accounting for 15.7% of the total power generation of various types of power sources. The clean energy industry in Qinghai Province is flourishing, but the challenges that come with it are becoming increasingly prominent.
Due to the rapid growth of clean energy installed capacity, Qinghai Province is facing a problem of the emergence of the American style "power duck" curve phenomenon, which is the difference curve between the net value of demand for all day electricity and renewable energy (such as solar energy), named "duck curve" because its curve is similar to a duck. The "Duck Curve" reflects the challenges posed by the increasing installed capacity of photovoltaics, resulting in a decrease in net demand during the day (duck belly), a sharp increase at sunset (duck neck), a deeper belly, and a steeper and longer neck every year. More than a decade ago, the famous California power grid net load "duck curve" led the global energy community to pay attention to energy storage demand, hoping to use energy storage to smooth the duck curve. However, more than a decade later today, the duck curve has intensified into a canyon curve.
The main reason for the appearance of the "duck curve" in the California power grid is that photovoltaic power generation reaches its maximum at noon and disappears in the evening when there is no solar energy. However, at this time, the demand for electricity sharply increases, and photovoltaic power generation cannot meet this demand. In theory, when the proportion of photovoltaic power generation in the power grid exceeds 20%, the power grid will face the problem of the "duck curve", while Qinghai's proportion has already reached 25% as early as 2022, and its power allocation imbalance problem is catching up with the current "canyon curve" in California, USA. The recent announcement of the proportion of new energy installed capacity and the adjustment of electricity prices in Qinghai Province, China, seems to support the fact that Qinghai Province is facing the same or more severe electricity "duck curve" as California.

On March 22, the Qinghai Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on soliciting opinions from the public on optimizing and improving the peak valley time of use electricity price policy in our province (draft for soliciting opinions). It is explicitly stated that "Qinghai Province will adjust the electricity consumption of all industrial and commercial users who implement the peak and valley time of use pricing policy during peak and valley periods: 7:00-9:00, 17:00-23:00 during peak periods; 9:00-17:00 during low periods; the rest of the time will be normal periods. Especially, the policy of increasing electricity prices by 63% during peak periods and decreasing electricity prices by 65% during low periods will guide users to concentrate electricity consumption during low periods, reduce electricity consumption during peak periods, and attempt to balance the supply-demand relationship and reduce the pressure of electricity consumption during peak periods."
The current problem facing Qinghai is the high daytime power generation, limited transmission channels of the power grid, and inability to deliver all electricity to the eastern region, which is the peak period of electricity prices. In order to achieve on-site consumption, Qinghai has introduced many high energy consuming industries, which usually require 24-hour uninterrupted operation to reduce the negative impact on equipment and products, thus also bringing about the problem of insufficient nighttime power generation. According to the development trend of the "canyon curve", in areas with a high proportion of wind and solar power generation, morning and evening peak hours will become the norm. This phenomenon first appeared in Qinghai because the proportion of wind and solar power generation in the province is at the leading level in the country. It can be foreseen that China will also face the same problem in five to ten years.
For a province in Qinghai, the problem of excessive daytime power generation can be solved by expanding the power grid channel, but it still cannot solve the problem of insufficient morning and evening power generation. For the whole country, the power grid channel can only solve the problem of uneven daytime power generation space, but it cannot solve the problem of uneven power generation time. Therefore, conducting large-scale energy storage and peak shaving within the day is the only way to solve the imbalance of power generation time. The 2030 carbon peak target set by China is estimated to require more than 25% of wind and solar power generation. Whether the economy of large-scale energy storage technology can meet self profitability will be the soul question that all technological routes will face. The current electricity prices in China are mostly in the range of 0.3~0.4 yuan/kWh, and the cost of wind and solar power generation has decreased to 0.15 yuan/kWh, leaving about 0.2 yuan/kWh of profit and loss space for energy storage. Therefore, a lifetime electricity cost of 0.2 yuan/kWh will become a key indicator to test whether each technology can be used for large-scale energy storage.

How to scientifically calculate the full life cycle electricity cost of energy storage systems

全钒液流电池-储能系统/BMS

液流电池-电极/隔膜
LAB系列研发示范装置
储能系统度电成本计算器NeLCOS®