According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the price decline trend of lithium-ion batteries, which has lasted for more than a decade, was broken in 2022. The average selling price of lithium-ion battery packs in all industries has risen to $151 per kilowatt hour (or ¥ 1.05/Wh) in 2022, with a 7% increase in actual value compared to the average price in 2021. The pressure of rising battery costs exceeds the price reduction space brought by low-cost chemicals such as lithium iron phosphate (LFP).

This value represents the average value of various types of batteries, including electric vehicles, buses, and fixed energy storage projects. For electric vehicle (BEV) components, the average price in 2022 is $138 per kilowatt hour (or ¥ 0.96/Wh). As for battery cells alone, the average price of BEV is $115 per kilowatt hour (or ¥ 0.80/Wh), accounting for 83% of the total packaging price. In the past three years, the cost ratio of batteries to battery pack accessories has typically been 70:30. The increase in this proportion is due to changes in battery pack design, such as the introduction of modular and blade battery designs, which help reduce battery pack costs.

From a regional perspective, battery pack prices are the cheapest in China, at $127 per kilowatt hour (or ¥ 0.89/Wh), while prices in the United States and Europe are 24% and 33% higher, respectively. The higher prices mainly come from the relative immaturity of these markets, higher production costs, diverse market applications, and a large number of battery imports.

If it weren't for the increased usage of low-cost anode material lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and the continued decrease in expensive cobalt usage in ternary lithium (NMC), the price would be higher than $151 per kilowatt hour. On average, in 2022, lithium iron phosphate batteries are about 20% cheaper than ternary lithium batteries. However, even low-cost chemicals like LFP, which are only affected by the price of lithium carbonate, are also affected by the rising cost of the entire supply chain. Compared to 2021, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery packs increased by 27% in 2022

Evelina Stoikou, energy storage assistant at Bloomberg New Energy Finance and the main author of the report, said, "The rise in raw material and accessory prices is the biggest reason for the rise in battery pack prices in 2022. In the context of rising battery metal prices, large battery manufacturers and car manufacturers have shifted towards more aggressive strategies to hedge against fluctuations, including direct investment in mining and smelting projects."

Although the prices of key battery metals such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt have slightly slowed down in recent months, it is expected that the average price of lithium battery packs will remain above $152 per kilowatt hour (or ¥ 1.06/Wh) in 2023. The report predicts that the price of lithium battery packs will only begin to decline by 2024 at the earliest, as the mining and smelting capacity launched in the past two years will not be officially put into operation until then.

Yayoi Sekine, head of energy storage at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, said, "Despite rising prices, demand for batteries continues to set new records every year. In 2022, demand will reach 603GWh, almost twice that of 2021. Expanding the supply chain at this growth rate is a huge challenge for the industry, but investment in the industry is also rapidly increasing, and technological innovation has not slowed down."

Continuous investment in research and development, manufacturing process improvement, and overall supply chain capacity expansion will help improve battery technology and reduce costs in the next decade. The report predicts that next-generation technologies, such as silicon and lithium metal negative electrode materials, solid-state electrolytes, as well as new positive electrode materials and battery manufacturing processes, will play an important role in further reducing prices.

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