According to reports, over 1000 fuel cell vehicles and over 700 hydrogen fuel buses were put into use during the recently concluded Beijing Winter Olympics. Fuel cells, known as "green batteries" and one of the top ten new technologies that will change the future world, have received increasing attention in recent years due to their theoretical maximum efficiency approaching 100% and pollution-free characteristics. Unlike the vast majority of batteries, the chemical energy of fuel cells is not stored in metals, metal ions, or oxides inside the battery, but relies on chemical reactions between gas fuel and oxygen to generate electricity, making it a type of primary battery.

1、 Development scale and future prediction of fuel cells

According to relevant data (as shown in the figure below), except for the impact of the epidemic in 2020, the installation of fuel cells has been on the rise year by year. In 2019, the installed capacity of hydrogen fuel cell systems in China reached 128.06MW. In 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, the installed capacity decreased to about 79.2MW. In 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of fuel cell systems in China reached 173MW. It can be expected that with the further development and maturity of the fuel cell industry, the installed capacity of fuel cells in China will exceed 300MW by 2025, and is expected to exceed 800MW by 2030. According to a report from Fuji Economic Research in Japan, the fuel cell industry is expected to experience rapid growth within 10 years. It is expected that the global fuel cell market will reach 61.8 billion yuan by 2025 and exceed 304.2 billion yuan by 2030, with extremely broad market prospects.


In addition, the fuel cell vehicle industry is also thriving. At present, the global number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is close to 50000, and the proportion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China is about 22%, close to 9000. According to data from the China Hydrogen Alliance and the China Hydrogen Industry Development Report 2020, the production of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China has been continuously increasing from over 600 units to nearly 3000 units from 2016 to 2019, showing a continuous upward trend. It is expected that the number of hydrogen vehicles in China will reach 100000 by 2025, close to 1 million by 2030, and exceed 5 million by 2060.

With the introduction of policies at all levels, the hydrogen energy industry supporting fuel cells has also entered an accelerated development stage. Currently, China has built over 190 hydrogen refueling stations, second only to Japan and Germany, and is at the forefront of world development. According to the White Paper on China's Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Industry, it is expected that China will build 300 and 1500 hydrogen refueling stations before 2025 and 2030, respectively, and the total number of hydrogen refueling stations will reach 10000 by 2050. Therefore, it can be said that the development of fuel cells and their related industrial chains has begun to enter the "fast lane".

2、 Development scale and future prediction of fuel cell membranes

As the core component of fuel cells, fuel cell membranes account for 10% to 20% of the total cost. Due to the fact that the research and application of anion exchange membranes are still in its early stages, the majority of fuel cell membranes currently use proton exchange membranes (PEMFC). At present, 90% of the global proton exchange membrane market is occupied by ChemChina (formerly DuPont), which is widely used in the chlor alkali industry, fuel cells, electrolysis of water for hydrogen production, and all vanadium flow battery energy storage systems. Other shares are also mainly held by foreign companies such as Xuhuacheng, Xuxiaozi, Ballard, etc. Only Dongyue and Kerun New Materials in China have certain competitiveness. At present, fuel cells mainly use perfluorosulfonic acid proton exchange membranes, and production enterprises include companies such as Kemu Chemical, Xunizi, and Xuhuacheng, which are expected to continue to dominate in the next 5-10 years. Ballard, on the other hand, produces partially fluorinated sulfonic acid proton membranes, which may have further development in the future due to their significant price advantage. In addition, PBI membranes suitable for high-temperature proton exchange membrane fuel cells are also in the further development and promotion stage.


In the automotive fuel cell membrane market, the new materials think tank predicts that the future proton exchange membrane market will depend on the automotive fuel cell market based on China's policies, vehicle enterprise layout, and production capacity. By 2030, the market size of China's automotive proton exchange membranes will reach nearly 6.5 billion yuan. In the report "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap", it is estimated that the demand for proton exchange membranes will be about 26.4 million square meters by 2030, with a market space of 13.2 billion yuan and broad market prospects. It is worth mentioning that in the field of all vanadium flow battery energy storage, the scale of related energy storage projects in China currently exceeds 120MW, with an under construction scale of about 110MW. According to the current construction scale, it will consume about 150000 to 200000 square meters of proton exchange membranes, and the expected market space can also reach 220 to 300 million yuan. Although investment analysis institutions currently have different opinions on the future market size of fuel cell membranes and proton exchange membranes, none of them are very optimistic about their rapid development in the market.

In terms of fuel cell membranes for vehicles, Gore Company in the United States, due to the ultra-thin and comprehensive performance advantages of Gore select reinforcement membranes, occupies 90% of the domestic composite reinforcement membrane market. Toyota MIRAI, Hyundai NEXO, and Honda CLARITY all use Gore Company's second-generation Gore select membranes, and currently achieve mass production with a film thickness of 8 microns. The annual shipment volume reaches hundreds of thousands of square meters, and it is expected to continue to maintain a leading advantage in the next decade.

Given the increasing policy subsidies for fuel cell vehicle models at the national and local levels, it is currently possible to achieve almost the same purchase cost as fuel cell vehicles in some regions, which will further promote the development of the entire fuel cell industry. It can be expected that the development scale of fuel cells and their core components, proton exchange membranes, will accelerate in the next five years and enter a high-speed development stage in the next decade. Fuel cell technology and applications are expected to become another popular myth after lithium batteries under national policy support, and their future market size and prospects are very huge.



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